Stupid Mediacom -- been out of internet a fair deal of this week -- really has thrown a wrench in the gears of research for Drake games. Oh well, at least the radio still worked on Wednesday as we were treated to another notch in the win column.
Today brings a mighty task for the Bulldogs. Wichita State is already 17-3 overall and is sitting at 6-2, a clear second in the conference. They just came off of a huge win against UNI and are absolutely rolling. At the rate they're at, I think it's fairly reasonable that they can begin the whispers of two Valley bids in the tournament this year.
As much as I'd love to see that, I'd even more love to see a convincing Drake victory today. It's going to be tough though, because the Shockers bring an insanely balanced attack featuring Toure' Murry (12.7 PPG), Clevin Hannah (11.8 PPG), J.T. Durley (11.6 PPG), and Graham Hatch (9.6 PPG). Three of those four shoot 44% from tree, and roughly 60% EFG. They're just as strong defensively -- holding down the oppositions attack, especially from the three (they have allowed just 14-60 three point shooting in the past four games, "good" for 23.3%). In addition, they keep the opposition off of the boards, as they are 6th in the nation in opposing offensive rebounding percentage (only allowing 26.6%, well below the national average of 33%). After a poor rebounding showing against Creighton on 1/9, they allowed 8, 10, and 6 in their past three games.
That said, I think the following gives us a chance today:
(1) The look of the Bulldogs team is incredibly different than what the Shockers saw on 1/1. Gone are the times of Ryan Wedel starting at the point, which he did in that game. Frank Wiseler only played 4 minutes in that game -- he'll obviously be a significant difference in today's game. In addition, while JY took 12 shots in that game and will likely take several today, he's essentially a different player now that he's focused on driving and dishing instead of taking clear jumpshots. Adam Templeton took 6 shots and got 1 rebound in that game -- I find it difficult to believe he'll look the same as well. All in, you can make the argument that four of our significant players (Wiseler, JY, Wedel, Templeton) are playing either significantly different styles or roles since the last showing. That's not the same opponent that Wichita State saw earlier in the month.
(2) The Shockers have not been forcing as many turnovers as of late. They average forcing 15 per game for the year, but in the past three games, they have only forced 9, 9, and 10. That's 5-6 shots per game, which if you shoot in the 40% range, is another 4-6 points, a significant amount. This is obviously Phelps' forte, and if we can keep that number low while Frank and JY fills in, that's going to benefit our offense tremendously.
(3) Something has to give. Their three point defense has been fantastic, in fact 18th in the nation at 29.1%. Earlier in the post I mentioned how that has been fantastic as of late (23.3%). That said, in their past three games, the Bulldogs have hit 14, 9, and 10 three pointers en route to 47.8%. Now, this irresistable force/immovable object situation likely favors the defense, but given items #1 and #2 above, I'm not so sure that we can't force the issue and turn the heat up from the three point line. Given what we saw against Missouri State and Illinois State, if Drake can get a few long shots going in the Knapp, they certainly can get on a roll. I'm not saying this is going to happen 100%, but it's certainly a possibility. In their (WSU) loss against Illinois State, they allowed the redbirds to toss up a 9-18 (50%) game from beyond the arc. Funny, that loss came just two games after their other big win of the year, at home versus Texas Tech (85-83). Could this team be a victim to another road letdown following a huge home win? I certainly think there's a good shot...
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