Tomorrow night might be our best chance.
UNI has lagged a bit in their last three victories, as they were by a combined seven points. While a win is a win is a win, it nevertheless signals a few ways that we can significantly improve on our last performance, a 16 point loss in Cedar Falls last month.
As I looked through the numbers, I saw two significant ways that teams gave the Panthers a run for their money:
The first is to absolutely dominate on the offensive glass. Missouri State did this three games ago, in a one point loss in Springfield. They netted 15 offensive rebounds, which actually translates to an extremely large percentage (42.9% OR%) when you consider the limited amount of possessions (52 in that game). They didn't shoot particularly well (39.3% from the field), but when you give yourself that many added opportunities to score, it significantly increases the percent of possessions that result in a score. Coincidentally, this is measured by "Floor%", which again is the % of possessions that result in a score. MSU posted a Floor% of 57.8%, well above the average 46.4% that UNI gives up, and the reason is purely due to MSU's dominance on the boards and getting themselves significant amounts of putbacks. If perhaps that's too technical, consider that they had 12 more field goal attempts in the game than UNI. Very impressive.
Unfortunately, most of us know that offensive rebounding is perhaps the Bulldogs' biggest weakness. It's pretty unlikely to imagine that we're going to significantly beat up UNI on the offensive glass.
Fortunately though, SIU and Wichita State made the Panthers sweat in a different way. They kept it close by outshooting the Panthers, particularly from three. Both opponents shot 8-19 (42.1%) from beyond the arc, virtually 10% above UNI's shooting in those games (31.3% and 33.3%, respectively). It wasn't just threes though, both teams outshot UNI overall, (45.2% vs. 38% and 46.2% vs. 37.8%). Strong team defense and timely shooting on the offensive end is obviously critical.
That said, both teams managed to screw it up through a few major letdowns. Wichita State shot 10-17 (58.8%) from the free throw line and Southern Illinois committed 17 turnovers. Those are two things that you simply can't do against a Top 25 team, especially considering they were on the road.
So what are our chances? Well, like I stated above, we're obviously not going to rip down an exceptional amount of offensive rebounds. That said, we have a fantastic shot to turn the tables on the Panthers in the shooting department. While we just played in Cedar Falls and were outshot 47.1% to 38% (and we only shot 4-17, 23.5% from three), there's something about this team that makes them seem to play better at the Knapp.
I looked through this year's stats in total and in conference, and there is no surprise that we shoot significantly better in the friendly confines:
- Home -- Full Season = 137-338 (40.5%)
- Away -- Full Season = 81-247 (32.8%)
- Difference -- Full Season = +7.7%
- Home -- MVC Play = 61-153 (39.9%)
- Away -- MVC Play = 44-154 (28.6%)
- Difference -- MVC Play = +11.3%
Obviously the schedules don't line up exactly and we played some fairly easy teams at home in the non-conference play, but the difference in MVC Play is significant and clear. With 150+ shots, I feel like it's even statistically significant. I could thumb through the calcs, but the difference is relatively clear.
That said, it's certainly not a shoe-in that we're going to drop 40% from three tomorrow night, especially against such a strong defensive squad in UNI. But, if we can (a) get the ball rolling from beyond the arc and vastly improve on the 4-17 we dropped in Cedar Falls, (b) hold UNI's offense in check, ideally better than we did in Cedar Falls, to the tune of mid 30%'s, and (c) avoid stupid mistakes like excessive turnovers or missed free throws (the latter has been an issue this year), there's absolutely no question that this team can knock off the Panthers. I'm actually seeing it as a distinct possibility.
-dutl
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