Illinois State Redbirds @ Drake Bulldogs

And we meet the Redbirds again. These schools have provided some fairly brutal beatdowns to one another in recent memory. We all remember the 30 point beatdown that Drake put on Illinois State in the MVC title game two years ago, when they showed Dick Enberg and the world that we were truly an elite team that belonged in the NCAA with a high seed. Well, the Redbirds didn't take too kindly to that and gave us our own 22 point beatdown in the Knapp Center.

I'm thinking that trend will not continue tomorrow night at the Knapp, as I expect a hard played game by both teams.

We've seen our first win streak since mid-December, as we notched a solid win over a good Missouri State basketball team. It was quite the follow up to a huge win at SIU.

On the other side, Illinois State has started off the season strong at 4-2, looking pretty good until they were absolutely stomped by UNI 59-44 (in a game that was arguably not even as close as the final score indicates). But ISU regained their thunder and dropped 70 in a win over the Aces.

The UNI game should indicate just how strong of a defensive squad the Panthers are. This Illinois State team is a very strong offensive team. Throwing out the game against UNI, their offensive output (measured by points) has been: 72, 64, 68, 82, 70. They can do a lot of things on the offensive end and they have some great pieces on that team, all that made the 44 point output vs. UNI more puzzling (and perhaps even scary as to how good defensively UNI can be when they're on).

The first thing you think of when you hear Illinois State is Osiris Eldridge, their unquestioned leader. He's a star in the Valley, and truly one of the players that the MVC can point to when showing the quality of basketball that we have. He's having a fantastic year so far, perhaps his best at 16.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.8 APG, while shooting 45% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc. His athleticism in the Valley is unquestioned, and he's likely going to make some new highlight special plays before the end of the year.

What bothers me about this matchup is that Illinois State is truly so much more than the "Big O":

• Dinma Odiakosa is a man child. He's really come a long way since last year. He's putting up 11.5 PPG/8.4 RPG, absolutely unreal numbers as a true center in the MVC. In addition, he's been even better in Valley play. If you throw out the first game against Evansville (he only played 10 minutes due to fouling out, which is fairly ridiculous), he's averaging 10.8 rebounds per game over his last four full MVC games. He's also been in double figures scoring over those four games, so essentially he has been averaging a double double in recent MVC games.
• Lloyd Phillips is picking it up. His season numbers indicate shooting lines of 37% from the field and 33% from the three. But he's been a lot better than that as of late. Over the past four MVC games, he's averaged 13.3 points a game (up from 10.8 on the season). To do so, he's shot 11-23 from beyond the arc for a clip of 47.8%, well above his season averages. WHile doing so, he's done a great job distributing with 22 assists to 11 turnovers. This is exactly the play you want out of someone to complement your big man and your big scorer, someone who can shoot and distribute, and Phillips has really gotten back to doing that very well as of late.
• Other players can do very useful things for them. Alex Rubin is shooting 44% from the three on the year, and scored 13 in both of the last two games while hitting 7-8 from the three. Jackie Carmichael at 6-9 has chipped in 8 points a game on 53% shooting while also adding nearly 5 boards a game.

Overall, there's a lot of solid players in that lineup that can do a lot of things and attack you from a variety of different ways. This is virtually the exact opposite of Missouri State, where you knew to expect a lot of shots from Weems and Leonard. While Osiris is obviously going to get his shots, Illinois State really can afford to use him as a decoy for stretches and let some of their shooters or big men pick up slack in the meantime. Altogether, that makes me a little concerned about this matchup -- we can't just guard the three point line and expect to hold them down as they'll eat us up inside. We can't just pack in the key because Osiris, Rubin, and Phillips will find ways to score. In general, Osiris is going to command his own attention on top of that as well.

WHAT DRAKE NEEDS TO DO

To overcome all of this, Drake's going to need another magical shooting night. ISU is a top tier team with regards to rebounding, particularly with how well they keep the opposition off of the offensive boards (they have an opposing OR% of 28.4%, well below the national average of 33%). So we're going to get few secondary chances unless we can actively do something about it. What can we do about that?

Get Odiakosa in foul trouble. Whether its through the use of SVD or Templeton inside, or through some drives to the lane, we've got to get Odiakosa reeling. He's likely looking at double digit boards otherwise -- and if thats the case -- some of those double digit boards are directly rebounds that could have been second chance points for us otherwise with him off of the floor. If he sees ~30 minutes, we're in trouble.

PREDICTION

Overall, I'm fairly worried about this matchup. We're going against a team with a player who is dominant on the boards, a top notch Valley scorer, and some other guys who are really starting to find their rhythm from beyond the arc. I'm worried about a step back defensively from the Drakies, as they find themselves overmatched and their zone matchup fails against the diverse attack that the Redbirds can throw against us.

We need to shoot the ball well and perhaps catch some breaks (Odiakosa in foul trouble, or perhaps a cold shooting night from ISU) while capitalizing on all opportunities presented. Unfortunately, I think with the personnel between the two teams, I think we're going to see a tough stretch where we have a lot of one and done possessions. If the shots aren't falling, I just don't think we can keep the streak rolling.

Redbirds 74, Drake 66

(dutl 8-5 on the season)