Well, it's finally here, the annual showdown with Iowa. I'm sitting here, T-2.5 hours from tipoff and couldn't be any more jacked.
Perhaps it's because I've only been following the team since 2003, but this has really been the signature game of the year to me over that timeframe. To me, there's no better of a measuring stick than to see how our guys perform against the Big10 team that is on the other side of Highway 80. While the Hawkeyes have certainly been in a rebuilding mode the past year or two, I don't think that changes anything. This is a signature game, and an important one for the remainder of the season for the Bulldogs.
I'll be watching the game with perhaps a 50-50 split of Hawkeyes and Iowa fans. No better example to show that then the couple hosting the party is evenly split, one for the Hawkeyes (him) and one for the Bulldogs (her, that'a girl!). She has been a huge proponent for Drake this week, even pointing out how the Bulldogs have had their own Bud Light fan cans ever since they changed to the new logo (which is Blue and White... pretty close).
As I look forward to tip, here's whats running through my head:
Q: How has Iowa fared against poorly ranked defenses?
Here's the figures on the two worst defenses they faced:
- NC Central (109.4, 300th) - Iowa scored at a rate of 112 points/100 possessions.
- Bowling Green (104.5, 236th) - Iowa scored at a rate of 113 points/100 possessions.
Iowa's more of a 104 points/100 possessions team, so this clearly indicates that they've performed well against poor defenses in the limited sample we have. The key issue here is that we're certainly one of these poor defenses (statistically speaking) as well.
That said, both of these examples were very poor offensive teams, so that makes me inclined to think that Iowa likely had to work a bit less on the defensive end. You can make a very fair argument that those two are fairly independent of one another, but I'm not necessarily swayed in this particular case.
The end result is that they're certainly going to put pressure on our defense. We need to shore up that zone, and this game is absolutely going to give us a feel for where it's going to go. I personally think we've had a few games where we've shown progress, but have reverted a bit as of late. If that trend continues, this game could get ugly.
Q: Let's talk about the other end of the floor. What does Drake have going in their favor?
An item that has creeped up in their numbers that needs to be exploited is the fact that they have been allowing the three.
Their opponents are shooting 37.3% from beyond the arc. That may not sound too high, but consider this: only two opponents they have faced this year shoot above that rate themselves (Texas San Antonio at 40.6% and Iowa State at 44.6%). The rest shoot roughly at that range, or well below (with a number in the 20% range).
What does this mean? Well consider some examples:
- Wichita State shoots 36.6% on the season but hit 11-21 (52.4%) against Iowa
- NC Central shoots 35.2% on the season but hit 8-18 (44.4%) against Iowa
- Duquesne shoots an abysmal 25.5% on the season but still managed 8-22 (36.4%)
We're better shooting teams then all of these teams, at 40.3% on the season. The three ball will be huge as we need to get Wedel, Young, Simons, and company rolling from beyond the arc. If we do, we're going to score our share of points, which hopefully will put pressure on the Hawkeyes on the other end of the floor.
Q: What else is critical?
Well, it wouldn't be a blog posting if I didn't mention rebounding. It's obvious that we need to hold our own on the defensive glass and avoid second opportunities. But I'm going to go a different route here -- turnovers.
Believe it or not, Drake is currently 15th in the country with a TO% of 16.9% (average is 21.0%). Iowa is just above the average at 22.9%.
While I think part of Drake's low # is because we have played so many poor defensive teams, I still think it's key they take care of the basketball on the road. In addition, they need to find a way to tip passes, force turnovers, and get the ball away from the Hawkeyes.
In a 65 possession game, 17% versus 23% results in 11 versus 15 turnovers. With how we've been defending, it will be critical to keep a 4+ turnover edge in our favor. If we can do that, we're certainly on our way to a win.
So what's your thought?
This game is huge. While Iowa is certainly struggling, consider the ramifications of a win in Iowa City. We go into the San Deigo State game with huge momentum (a three game winning streak) and possibly keep that going into the Valley season. While a loss today is by no means a season breaker, it certainly is a missed opportunity for this team to really get on a roll.
I think the Hawkeyes are struggling. While we're young, I don't think there's much of a psychological edge for us to travel to Iowa City. Josh Young has done it before, and he'll have to play a critical role.
I'm predicting that he continues to get back on track, showing some results from all the extra work he put in. I'm predicting that Drake's defense shows up and puts up defensive numbers somewhere in the range of the better 1/3 of games they have statistically. I'm predicting the upset (Drake is +6):
Drake 68, Iowa 63
(dutl 4-2 on the season)
No comments:
Post a Comment