Aztecs @ Bulldogs

Tomorrow night brings the next test, a home game against the Aztecs of San Diego State, courtesy of the MVC-MWC Challenge.

The Aztecs come to town just off of a narrow 55-52 loss on the road to Arizona State (who I think might have a shot to be pretty good, despite all that they lost). Their most notable win is likely their 63-46 drubbing of Arizona, which occurred just back on 12/12.

While there's no clear cut superstar that sticks out on this squad, I'm absolutely terrified of this matchup. Look at how solid of a unit they put on the floor:

• Tyrone Shelley_6-5 G / 10.3 PPG / 4.2 RPG
• D.J. Gay_______6-0 G / 10.2 PPG / 2.4 RPG
• Kawhi Leonard__6-6 F / 9.5 PPG / 9.5 RPG
• Malcolm Thomas_6-9 F / 10.5 PPG / 7.1 RPG
• Billy White____6-8 F / 12.2 PPG / 5.8 RPG

That is an absolutely stacked starting five. All of them virtually average double figures, and they all rebound the heck out of the basketball. Kind of like UNI on steroids.

This team is active and gets after it, getting 61% of their points from within the arc (well above the national average of 52%). If they don't score the first time, they're going to get second chances, with an offensive rebounding % of 43.5%, SIXTH in the nation. I really like where their floor percentage (the % of posessions they score on) is, at about 58%. All in all, as I look through the numbers, this seems to be a balanced attack that really puts pressure on you and generates ridiculous amounts of added opportunities. This does not bode well for the Drakies, and possibly is the worst matchup we have had to face yet this season.

CEASING TO BE SUCH A DEBBIE DOWNER...

On the bright side, consider the play of Seth Van Deest over the past five games:

• 25.0 Minutes/Game
• 12.3 Points/Game
• 5.0 Rebounds/Game
• 0.622 Field Goal Percentage
• 0.810 Free Throw Percentage

Absolutely oustanding stuff. He's been efficient (0.622 FG%), he's made his free throws (0.810), and he's getting us great offense out of the post. If anything, I'd like to see him get more touches. A strong post presence that you have to respect opens so many options for an offense. It will be interesting to see if he can keep this run going as we really start to hit the meat of the schedule.

GETTING TO CRUNCH TIME

The next four games is really going to show us how the rest of the season is going to shape out. Using data from RealTimeRPI.com, our average RPI of our 11 played opponents is 182. That changes in a hurry, as the next four opponents (SDSU, Bradley, Wichita State, and Indiana State) combine for an average RPI of 76. It's looking like one of our tougher stretches of our season, and it certainly will tell us where the remainder of the games are going to go.

Focusing on just the next game at hand, I think I gave my perspective above. We're going to struggle to matchup with this team, and I just hope that their take it to the rim style doesn't get Van Deest in foul trouble, because I'd love to see how he continues to progress. I'd also like to see Ben get back on track, but perhaps that's food for thought for another time...

Prediction: Aztecs 75, Drake 64

(dutl 4-3 on the season)