Tough loss to ISU. Both teams absolutely limped to a poor start but then found their rhythm, on the way to an exciting second half. However, Illinois State (and specifically Champ Oguchi) had too many shots in them as they fought their way to a 65-61 win in Normal. Great game out of the Bulldogs, just a few too many plays short.
However, I think it’s realistic to expect Drake to come up short on the road against a Valley leader. Tomorrow, rather than Wednesday, is a real key for how the remainder of this Valley season transpires for Drake. Honestly, 13-5 is going to win the Valley this year, and it’s quite possible that 12-6 could win it as well with how deep the teams are.
After tomorrow I like to chop our schedule into two sections. MO State, @ Creighton, Evansville, @ Wichita as one. We should go 3-1 in that span – most likely losing on the road to a good Creighton team. The problem is that the other games are not gimmes as well. The remaining seven games get even rougher: Creighton, Bradley, @ Indiana State, Illinois State, @ UNI, SIU, @ Bradley. 4-3 in that span is an absolute victory for this team. Put that 3-1 and 4-3 together and I’d say a great goal for the stretch run (after tomorrow’s game) is 7-4. Given that we’re already 4-2 in the MVC, that a great stretch would put us at 11-6 in the conference (not counting tomorrow’s game against UNI). You can see how this game is a must win. If we don’t win tomorrow – in addition to just getting the one loss, now instead of the 3-1 and 4-3 I talked about earlier, maybe its 2-2 and 3-4. That makes us 9-9 and probably not even sniffing an NIT bid.
I might be out of my mind, but we can see what momentum does to a team in this league. Just look at SIU and how bad they are in the dumps. Meanwhile, look at Bradley, atop the conference right now. If we can win the big games this team is going to do great things. It all starts with tomorrow.
My biggest concern? Size. I’m most worried about the duo of Adam Koch and Jordan Eglseder, the 6-8 and 7-0 combo that combines for 21.2 PPG and 11.5 RPG. These guys are going to be rough down low, and they are going to try to expose our lack of interior depth. How Brent deals with Eglseder is going to be huge. Alex White might need to have some significant minutes to beat some sense into this guy. I’m not worried at all about their outside shooting – sure they can go on a run here and there, but they don’t have Champ Oguchi’s and Osiris Eldridge’s that are just going to annihilate us with the long ball. Even if they do get on a run, I just don’t think that’s something they can sustain for 40 minutes.
Altogether, I think Drake feels like they missed a golden opportunity to steal one at ISU. Josh Young hasn’t shot well in many games. I expect them to come out firing, a great game for about 30 minutes and then the Bulldogs to just bury them by 15 towards the end. Go Dawgs!
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