Garbage

That’s my take on tonight’s game not being televised. You’ve got a program at home (Illinois State) who has received Top 25 votes and is reeling after a few bad losses but looking to regain a stranglehold on the MVC. You’ve got a veteran visiting team (Drake) who is one of the most talented mid-major programs in the country coming in, and is rolling with a 13-4 record and a 4-1 start in the Valley. Both teams need this game – ISU has to get back on track to keep their at large NCAA tournament berth alive, and Drake is the defending conference champion who desparately wants to show that last season wasn’t a fluke. Not good enough for FSN or ESPNU? CBS College Sports even? Please.

Ken Pomeroy is projecting this game to be a ISU win, 71-65 using his method that basically tracks how many points a team scores and gives up over 100 posessions, compares it to the other team and then scales it to the rough amount of possessions that each team plays at. I totally respect his method, and I am one of his biggest proponents. However, he’s projecting that Drake only has a 24% chance of winning. That seems a bit low to me – not extreme – but low.

I’m so excited for this game. In addition to the major storyline I listed above – this is a matchup between two guys that you don’t hear a ton about but were pretty much the two choices for MVC player of the year (Josh Young v. Osiris Eldridge).
In all reality, neither guy is their whole team, which speaks volumes to how talented and deep each team is. A secondary matchup that I think is just as critical is the aforementioned is the matchup between Josh Parker vs. Champ Oguchi. While it’s certainly not a heads up matchup – both really seem to be big pick me ups for their teams. It’s obvious how much more energy Drake has when Parker is on the floor, and heck, Oguchi is ISU’s leading scorer this year. Whoever provides a big charge really will tip the scales for that team.

I think a key for Drake has to be rebounding, particularly on the offensive glass. They sure have not shown that well in the past few games at home, but I’d have to think they come out with more energy tonight. ISU holds teams off the boards, but they’re not particularly huge. If Drake can win the offensive rebounding battle, that will be clutch.

Probably the other key is how Drake’s team defense plays tonight. ISU is so talented Drake can’t just focus on Big O – they’re going to get absolutely burned if they do. This ISU attack on paper looks to be one of the most balanced among all mid-majors. If they are hitting on all cylinders, I’d have to say that we are absolutely screwed.

We also need an unexpected contributor. His name could be Adam Templeton, John Michael Hall, Bill Eaddy, or even Brent Heemskerk. We can’t just get 45 out of Young, Parker, and Bucky and expect to be okay.

Altogether, this is a huge game for us. At this point, this Valley season is shaping up to be absolute bananas (yes I said it, B-A-N-A-N-A-S). The top 5 teams are all separated by just one game and we’re already five games into the conference season. Plus, you know that some of the bottom dwellers (SIU, I’m looking at you) are going to have a guy like Kevin Dilard put the team on their back and start winning some tough games.