Losing Simons and Shooting Fish in a Barrel

Nothing like one day to completely shatter your expectations of a team.  We learned yesterday that Ben Simons has mono.  Coming from someone who had mono when I was Simons' age, he's out for the remainder of the season.  Even if he comes back, he won't be the same player.

Losing Ben is huge, and it became painfully obvious by last night's 57-39 debacle against Missouri State that this team isn't ready yet to compete without him.  A fair argument can be made that Simons is one of the most consistent players in the MVC (He seemingly always shoots well, gives you 15+ a game, doesn't make many mistakes, and is reliable).  That's huge on a team filled with lots of guys who can be quite volatile in their production (Rice, Alexander, Hawley) or others who tend to be tentative (Jeffers).  Taking away that rock leaves the team out of sync and unfortunately nobody could make an adjustment.

We really needed Rayvonte Rice to step up in Ben's absence, and he couldn't have done more of the opposite. Other than a dunk (which really came from a great feed from Judd Welfringer), Rice was 0-10 from the field.  He certainly wasn't the only one that laid a goose egg, but it was ugly.

After seeing him shoot several bricks from three, I got curious as to just how bad Rice has been from three this year.  The answer is horrendous.  With his 0-3 night from three last night, Rayvonte Rice is now shooting 6-40 (15%) from three in MVC play.  That is so bad it's actually astounding.

Before thinking through the implications of that number, let me first voice my frustrations.  Rice is so good at basketball, no question.  Everyone is aware of his superior athletic ability.

• He is 63-148 (43%) from two.  Very solid given that he uses more possessions than anyone in the MVC.
• He is in the top 10 in the MVC in rebounding
• He has gotten to the line more than anyone in the MVC
• He leads the conference in steals.

Simply put, he does a lot.  But he DOESN'T shoot threes well.  The frustrating part is that he doesn't seem to notice and/or care.  It would be one thing if this were his weakness and he took a three every now and then.  However, he averages 3 attempts per game.  Only Simons and Hawley have shot more threes on our team in conference (72 and 45).  He is clearly looking to get three point shots off.  I'm not sure if he's seen a stat sheet or not, but he probably should realize that every time he takes a three, he's more or less giving away a valuable possession.

Let's think through how ridiculous shooting 15% from three point range is:

• If you give Kraidon Woods (a 43.1% free throw shooter) three free throws, he will hit all three of them 8% of the time.  So about half as often as Rice hits threes, Kraidon Woods could hit three free throws in a row.
• Putting it into perspective against someone more proficient at it, Aaron Hawley has shot only five more threes in conference than Rice.  However, he has made three times as many (18-45 versus 6-40).
• Chris Carpenter, pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals, batted 0.155 this season.  So Rice is as successful at converting three pointers as Chris Carpenter is at getting base hits.
• Tim Tebow's maligned Denver Broncos offense conveted 30.8% of their third downs, right at the bottom of the league.  So Denver is twice as good at converting third downs as Rice is at shooting threes.
• The New Orleans Hornets are 4-20 so far in the NBA (.167).  So, the second worst NBA team is as good at winning games as Rayvonte Rice is at shooting threes.
• In 1920, Babe Ruth hit 54 home runs in 458 at bats, homering in just under 12% of his at bats.  So, Rice is slightly better at converting a three pointer than Babe Ruth was at knocking the ball out of the park in 1920.
• Manute Bol shot 43-205 (21%) from three in his NBA career.  So Bol, a 7'7" shot blocker was able to shoot threes (even from a further distance) at a more successful rate.
• More than half the teams in the NHL convert their power plays more than 15% of the time.  

If I'm sounding overbearing on this, that is the point.  15% from three is beyond abysmal.