In STL for the weekend so a bit of a slimmed down post. Realize that has been the norm lately but am looking forward to making that not the case going forward.
(1) So who has AP played so far, and how have they fared?
AP is 2-3 so far, but their two wins were over Akron (who beat the Bulldogs 63-59 earlier this year) and Niagra (won 26 games last year in the MAAC). They lost a tight one to NC State, got beat down by Tennessee -- and lost fairly convincingly to IUPUI 77-63.
Fortunately, we've had a lot of shared opponents, so while it's very early in the year, it's tough to say that we don't match up well with this team given that we fared better against a team they lost convincingly to (IUPUI) and held our own against a team they narrowly beat (Akron). That doesn't tell us a whole lot about the specifics of this matchup, but at a 10,000 foot level it does indicate that we should be in this game.
(2) Who should we watch for?
Anthony Campbell. This 6-6 sophomore is a very efficient scorer, who averaged 7.8 PPG on 50% shooting as a freshmen last year. He has upped that to 15.0 PPG on 52% shooting this year, and seems poised to breakout as an inside/outside threat for AP. He already has 11 three pointers made and is shooting above 50% from the three this year, so is a threat from the outside, but certainly could blast us inside as well, where he did a lot of damage last year. His EFG% for THE YEAR last year was 60.6%.
Wes Channels. This senior split time as the lead scorer for AP last year, taking over 1/4 of their shots (splitting that duty with Drake Reed, who graduated). Averaged 16.5 PPG last year, and has started off real slow averaging 10.8 PPG, but shooting 30.2% from the field, and 20% from the three. With an EFG% of 51.1% last year, I'd expect him to pick things up and really offer another look away from Campbell to bring a two headed monster of scorers for AP.
(3) What do they do well?
Well, last year they could really shoot it (EFG% = 53%) and they return a lot of the same players. So that would indicate to me that we really need to step things up on the defensive end. That is the one number that really sticks out to me -- this team could really take it to us and pressure our defense early and often.
They have shown the ability to get offensive rebounds, claiming 31% of their opportunities (keep in mind this has been around 20% for Drake this year, that being a high number) -- so they'll likely give us fits on the boards.
(4) What can we exploit?
Shooting. This team struggled allowing a high EFG% last year, and that has continued into this year ('09 = 52.3%, '10 = 51.3%). We need to utilize our shooters to keep their defense honest and to open up driving opportunities for Wiseler, Young, Simons, & company.
They don't shoot a lot of threes. Campbell and Channels are two to keep in front of, but possibly a way to play that to our advantage on the defensive end.
Channels has struggled to shoot the ball right out of the gate this year, compared to his career numbers. It will be an interesting test for our defense to see if we can keep that trend going on, or if that was just a product of playing Akron, Tennessee, etc... producing tough matchups on the scoring end.
(5) What is your prediction?
This is a tough one to call. We're a more talented team, but we're young, inexperienced, struggling offensively, and on the road. I feel like we could honestly blow them out, but I wouldn't be surprised if we slip up as well. I think getting home and getting some practice time is going to pay dividends. Our depth is going to be clutch, and I think JY steps it up and we win a big one on the road:
Drake 72, Austin Peay 66
(dutl = 1-1 on the regular season in picks)
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