As I see it, there are five questions that circle the Bulldogs as we approach the 2009-2010 season:
(1) Can Josh Young revert back to his 2007-2008 form?
The single biggest X-Factor of how far this team can go is which Josh Young shows up. I mentioned this several times throughout the season last year that JY just was not playing at the level that he was operating at in his sophomore season. Part of that has to be attributed to the fact that he no longer had an all-Valley point guard setting him up, but we also learned that maybe the bigger driving force is that he just wasn't that healthy last year:
"Josh is fully embracing his role as the leader on our team," said Phelps. "We've seen some terrific things out of Josh in the preseason. He has made significant improvement in his explosiveness and I feel he is back to where he was as a sophomore before he sufferedan ankle injury."
On Media Day, we all learned publicly that apparently JY was really fighting his ankle last year and it inhibited his explosiveness and scoring. We spent a lot of time last year chalking it up to opposing team defenses really gearing it up for JY -- apparently that was not the main factor (but still probably a big contributor).
The exciting part of this development is that we can easily fix the injury part. JY had a procedure done at the end of last year to clean up his ankle, and it sounds from the quotes that he's about right back to 100% and shouldn't have this hurting him throughout the year.
A JY that can score 20 per game in an efficient manner immediately makes us top half Valley team. That's already an improvement from the play-in finish from last year. It also makes our outside shooting significantly better, and we haven't even got to the part that covers the new guys. Simply put, if JY is truly back to his sophomore season form, the ceiling of how high this team can go immediately rises.
(2) Who's going to start for this team?
Well, Josh Young is the obvious no brainer for the 2 spot. From there, it's hard to tell. I got into this in my season 2 premiere post, but Phelps seems to be favoring experience at this point.
In the MVC Media Day Summary [Good detail if you have a ton of time: http://www.mvc-sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=36371&SPID=2901&DB_OEM_ID=7600&ATCLID=204819191], there was a press conference that Phelps participated in along with Dana Altman, Ben Jacobson, Kevin McKenna, and Greg Marshall.
Phelps specifically mentioned the backcourt as a strength and named JY, Craig Stanley and Ryan Wedel specifically in his remarks. I'm reading into it a bit, but I think he just showed us who is going to start at the 1-2-3 spots initially for us. This is obviously speculation, and it's bound to change as the season goes on -- but I find it hard to believe that he's going to specifically mention a player by name that's going to sit on the bench.
I think Adam Templeton is another obvious choice to start. This team only has a few players that have any significant MVC ballgame experience, Templeton is one of them. They need that on the floor, particularly with how young this team is. As a result, I wouldn't be surprised to see AT playing the 4. With his frame he can pull it off, and I think he showed last year that he can play at multiple positions.
Switching gears back to Phelps' comments in the press conference, he conveys how he is going to need to rely on the experience that has returned. When discussing leadership, he does mention Bill Eaddy -- but mentions him as a guy that won't necessarily always be on the floor but works hard and sets a great example. Again, reading into this, it leads me to believe that some of the freshmen have passed him on the depth chart and he's not going to be the starter. Who does start is the big question, but I think we've got some clear candidates:
- Sean Jones
- Reece Uhlenhopp
- Seth Van Deest
My final guess on this is that I don't think this is going to be set in stone and Phelps is going to let them play it out.
Why might I think that? Well, I attended the 'Tip Off' breakfast last week with a friend from work, and we ended up sitting at a table with Reece and Seth. Brian (my work friend) asked Reece who was going to draw the fun duty of guarding Craig Brackins against ISU and Reece replied "I think there's going to be a lot of us taking turns doing that". Again, I'm reading into things, but judging what I have to work with, it leads me to believe that all of those guys listed above are going to play early and Phelps might use some early results to judge who starts. In addition, it seems like it might be a rotating job for quite some time.
So, using complete speculation, here's my guess at a starting five (but keeping in mind that I'm likely wrong in some of these guesses, and a lot of this will change as we get a look at these guys):
- 1 = Craig Stanley
- 2 = Josh Young
- 3 = Ryan Wedel
- 4 = Adam Templeton
- 5 = Seth Van Deest
(3) How good is this freshmen class?
Short answer: Early signs are pointing to AWESOME. They were ranked the #1 incoming recruiting class in the Missouri Valley Conference. In addition, some initial quotes from some Media Day reports are really showing that they will have some significant contributions:
From DSM Register:
"I forsee our freshmen getting lots of playing time," said Phelps. "They will have to be ready to hit the ground running. They have a lot of self-pride and have been high achievers across the board."
From the AP Writeup:
Drake basketball coach Mark Phelps knows exactly what he’s getting with freshman Ben Simons. “His habit is scoring,” Phelps said Wednesday during the team’s media day. “It’s kind of what he does.”
They're going to be pretty fun to watch.
(4) What will make this team exciting to watch?
Well, besides them being Drake, OUTSIDE SHOOTING. This team is going to run, and they're going to shoot the lights out. From the DSM Register:
"We will be a better shooting team," Phelps noted. "We can shoot the ball from more positions and we will continue to rely on our three-point shooting."
With Wedel, Young, Simons -- those are three absolute deadly gunners from distance. Rumor has it that Simons hit 45-50 at a practice.
I don't think it will be as crazy as the Emmenecker squad, but it's going to be exciting. Get ready for some discounts at the Drake Bookstore this year.
(5) How many wins will Drake have?
One thing we need to consider is that the Valley has SIGNIFICANTLY improved this year. UNI returns everyone. Creighton is right back at the top. Indiana State adds Jake Kelly. SIU adds Tony Freeman (which, while he's a great player, I don't think he deserves to be preseason all-MVC but thats another story). Illinois State returns Osiris and a cast of misfits. Bradley, Wichita, etc.. all will be taking steps forward. So, keep in mind that we need to get better just to maintain. That said...
Sean Keeler of the DSM register threw out 12.5. Given their non-conference schedule and a healthy JY, I think that's grossly too low.
Another poster threw out 18 wins, that feels a bit high to me. Let's keep in mind they play a lot of teams that played in one form or another of the postseason -- so to have this many freshmen relied on to conribute, 18 seems a bit rosy to me. But, it's certainly not out of the question, especially as the freshmen mature. I'll throw out three possible scenarios:
- "The Homer Scenario". Ben Simons is the freshmen of the year, JY is back in form, and there are significant contributors all around. This team takes advantage of their outside shooting and is right at the top of the Valley in their use of the three pointer, running some teams right out of the gym. Drake wins 20 games.
- "The Sky is falling Scenario". JY doesn't revert back to old form. The freshmen class is either not what was advertised (not likely) or needs time to develop (the more likely reason if it turns out they're not successful). With no tested big man, we get eaten up on the inside. We don't take care of the ball again and no one steps up to give us quality point guard play. We win 12 games and lose in the play-in round.
- "The most likely scenario". JY brings it back, the freshmen contribute, Wedel gives us a good spot up threat, and we muscle enough down low to hold our own and end up .500 in conference play. We have some weaknesses that combine with inexperience to really hurt us on the road, but we are so talented that we knock off UNI or Creighton at their place, or possibly even take Iowa State at home.
As you can see, with the questions out there, it's tough to say how this is going to go down. But I'm sure as hell excited to get this party started.
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