With one final game before the Valley season, I figured it was a great time to throw out some conference predictions. Ken Pomeroy (www.kenpom.com) has posted his initial projections for all of the NCAA. Given what is projected, I put together final standings for the Missouri Valley. First is current record, then projected record (MO Valley in parenthesis) and then a few comments on them:
1. Evansville
Current: 7-1
Finish: 23-5 (15-3)
Features a 16 game winning streak starting after their loss to North Carolina on 12/20 and lasting through 2/17. They will win the valley, apparently.
2. Creighton
Current: 8-2
Finish: 23-6 (14-4)
Projection loves the Bluejays at home in the valley, and for good reason as they have dominated in the Qwest Center. Big home win versus Dayton has boosted this, but this actually seems like a realistic projection for them.
3. Illinois State
Current: 9-0
Finish: 22-7 (12-6)
Not high on their undefeated record, and for good reason when the best teams you have played are UC-Santa Barbara and Bowling Green.
4. Missouri State
Current: 5-3
Finish: 17-12 (10-8)
Lost to good teams, beat nobody good. Same story as a lot of teams in the valley.
5. Wichita State
Current: 4-5
Finish: 16-13 (10-8)
Not sure why it is so high on Wichita State… my guess is their Neutral court win over Siena. Must have missed that loss at home to UMKC.
6. Drake
Current: 8-3
Finish: 16-14 (8-10)
Up and down conference season projected, pulled down by a projected five game losing streak from 1/21 – 2-4 (MizzSt, CU, Evan, WichSt, CU)
7. Bradley
Current: 5-4
Finish: 15-14 (8-10)
To be fair, they’ve beaten nobody and lost to UMKC (What the hell is going on with UMKC and Valley teams?!?!?!) and missing some chances against Michigan and Butler really hurt.
8. Southern Illinois
Current: 3-5
Finish: 12-17 (7-11)
No more than two wins in a row all season, punished by lots of early season losses to quality teams (Duke, UCLA, WKU, NV…)
9. Northern Iowa
Current: 5-5
Finish: 10-19 (4-14)
The projection HATES Northern Iowa. Apparently they will be favored in their next two games (at home, SDSU and then against Indiana State) and then not again for the rest of the season, but managing a few upsets along the way. Wow.
10. Indiana State
Current: 1-8
Finish: 6-23 (3-15)
They have lost some close ones, but 1-8 is 1-8. Outlook not good for these guys (but keep in mind they’re only projected to win one less game than Ken Pomeroy stepchild UNI)
This projection is extremely unrealistic, which has virtually been admitted by Ken Pomeroy himself. Right now, it uses current year statistics/results to forecast these things. Since we’re not even through December, it’s obviously incomplete and subject to some horrendous projections.
Given that, I still have a few comments:
* I am NOT high on Evansville at all. They have only one player rated high offensively (Fr. James Haarsma – who appears to be a rebounding machine by the way) and a lot of their success appears to just be defensively shutting down bad teams. I need to see them do it against some Valley teams before I buy them.
* Creighton appears exactly as I’d expect. 14-4 appears spot on, and exactly what I think the best record in the Valley will be this year.
* Illinois State will be dangerous. They have multiple guys that can really score the rock – everyone knows about Osiris Eldridge (who is arguably the best player in the MVC), but they also have Champ Oguchi, Lloyd Phillips, and Emmanuel Holloway who all add serious problems. Add in some serviceable bigs and this team is absolutely trouble.
* Missouri State… please. This team is bad. Not sure why they’re that high. All I need to write is Spencer Laurie. I’ll be seriously pissed off at the world if they win 7 valley games because they suck.
I’m not very high on Wichita State either, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they won 7 or so games. Team is young and starting to have the chance to turn over after the whole Turgeon/housecleaning fiasco.
* Bradley – Dodie Dunson and Theron Wilson are solid players, but I just wonder if there’s anything past those two.
* Southern Illinois – talk about a team that has struggled with some injuries and to get their rythym. They have probably the best two point guards in the valley in Brian Mullins and newcomer Kevin Dillard. Add in how Carlton Fay can score and Tony Boyle and this team is physical and dangerous. Once the scoring comes they are going to be absolutely impossible to matchup with (sound familiar?)
* UNI – They have a big man that will cause matchup problems and Koch, and I guess Travis Brown can kind of shoot. But their defense is awful and I really think Ben Jacobsen was a mistake.
* Indiana State – dude, they are 1-8.
* Drake – we on paper have one of the most talented squads offensively in the valley, even with our initial struggles. Cox and Young are two of the greatest players in the Valley, Heemskerk is developing, and Parker is an absolute stud off the bench. Add in that Stanley is settling into the PG role and that Alex White is showing promise on the boards and it’s easy to see that we are extremely talented.
So, given those comments, here’s my take:
1. Creighton
2. Southern Illinois
3. Drake
4. Illinois State
5. Bradley
6. Evansville
7. Wichita State
8. Missouri State
9. Northern Iowa
10. Indiana State
One last thing I wanted to discuss about the Pomeroy projections – I really think they do show that the Valley has really struggled against quality non-conference competition. The only team, Creighton, to have a quality non-conf. win (Dayton) is among the top of the Valley and I think we’ve seen that we have missed a lot of opportunities to knock off good opponents (Butler, Duke, WKU, Michigan, etc…). While I don’t think it’s anywhere near realistic to think we should have won one of those games, if the MVC is going to be a multi bid conference, we definitely needed one or two of those wins. Right now, Creighton is in if they play solid. If they win big this year and also take down the tournament, I think we’re going to have trouble getting more than them in. Just a thought at this point, hopefully I’m way wrong come March. Either way, let’s hope that Drake can fetch a big one by beating Iowa… more on that later this week.
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