Drake (9-3, 0-0) AT Evansville (7-2, 0-0)

I have only briefly seen Evansville play this year, most of which was against North Carolina on ESPN. However, I do have a few key thoughts on them:

• They are a team led by their defense. Using Ken Pomeroy's statistical breakdowns, they are a Top 50 defense in the country, even when you adjust for # of possessions. This is no surprise, as they have only allowed three opponents to score more than 66 points, and they held Western Kentucky to an astonishing 40 points.
• Their key? Limit teams to one posession. They are a top 25 team in how few offensive rebounds they allow the opposition, at 27.7% of opposing shots. By keeping other teams off the boards, they will allow some shots to fall obviously, but they greatly benefit by keeping teams from getting numerous chances.
• On offense, nobody really stands out in the statistics as an extremely efficient offensive player. Shy Ely is definitely the go to guy on their offense, scoring 17.3 PPG. But he really only shoots 43% from the field and is not much of a threat from beyond the arc. But he's consistent, and a leader for this team.
• Overall, they are not much of a three point shooting team. That bodes well for us, who struggle against snipers and great ball movement. They really aren't that deep as well but they do have some great rebounders and a solid defensive squad to say the least.

Overall, Evansville is legitimate. They have played Butler, UNC, WKU, etc... While there are a number of cupcakes in their schedule, I don't think you can necessarily disprove their statistics. This is a quality defensive team.

Still, I'm not the most worried about them. We appear to be able to match up with them. While they might keep Bucky and company off the boards, they don't appear to have the greatest numbers against shooting ballclubs, so that bodes well for us. Meanwhile, I don't think they are going to expose our 3-2 matchup zone and force us to respect the three, unless Holzinger just shoots lights out (which we have seen from recent years to be the case). Drake is an experienced enough ballclub to win a game like this on the road, and should not be fazed. The fact that it is over the holidays helps us as well.

I think that 66 point margin I mentioned earlier is key to us winning. I think we'll get there, and will take this game. Go Dawgs!

Prediction: Drake 69, Evansville 61