Arch Madness "Bracketology"

As of the end of tonight's games, I am putting our chance of getting out of the play in round at 1.0%. This is using a model I developed that simulates games using adjusted efficiencies and adjusting for home and away (perhaps I'll detail it more at another time).

In 5,000 scenarios, the best the Drakies did was go 9-9 (i.e. 6-1 the rest of the way). Unfortunately, that happened a whopping 3 out of 5000 tries. We're much more skewed to the other end, having a chance of losing out at 10.7%. Our most likely final record at this point is 5-13.

MVC Bracketology goes as follows:

Thursday:

(10) Bradley (3-15)

(7) Southern Illinois (7-11)

(9) Illinois State (5-13)

(8) Drake (5-13)

Friday:

(#) Play In Winner

(1) Wichita State (15-3)

(6) Evansville (9-9)

(3) Northern Iowa (13-5)

(#) Play In Winner

(2) Missouri State (15-3)

(5) Creighton (10-6)

(4) Indiana State (10-6)

Notes:

• This adds up to 92 wins (there should be 90) due to rounding
• I did apply the MVC tiebreaker when applicable, but this was done by scenario. The rankings above were the most likely scenario that fell out at this point in time.
• Strictly by the numbers, Drake actually has a favorable schedule compared to UE, SIU, and ISU from here out.
• The play in teams are fairly set at this point in time, with probabilities of getting out of the play in round at 10.1% (SIU), 1.0% (DU), 0.5% (ISU), 0.0% (BU). I'm not entirely sold that Bradley is actually mathematically eliminated yet, but their chances are so minute they round off here.