Arch Madness Bracketology Pt. 2

Thursday

#10 Bradley (4-14)

#7 Drake (7-11)

#9 Illinois State (5-13)

#8 Southern Illinois (6-12)

Friday

Illinois State/Southern Illinois Winner

#1 Wichita State (14-4)

#5 Evansville (10-8)

#4 Indiana State (10-8)

Bradley/Drake Winner

#2 Missouri State (14-4)

#6 Creighton (9-9)

#3 Northern Iowa (11-7)

Updates from last time:

• With their recent surge in offensive efficiency and their three game winning streak, Drake has overtaken SIU as the seventh seed, and by a healthy margin. Even in the event of a tie, the Bulldogs hold the tiebreaker, owning the season sweep.
• While no hit to their seeds, Wichita and Missouri State take a one game step back to the pack with some human performances of late. Wichita State goes down at home to SIU (a huge blow to their at large chances) and Missouri State recently had a two game skid.
• Likewise, UNI still holds their seed but looks a lot more beatable without O'Rear.
• Tonight's loss sets Creighton back a game, potentially costing them a seed. Coincidentally, the continued strong play by Evansville pushes them into the fifth spot.

Altogether, what looked like a clear two horse race has seen the odds open up to the field. While the recent skids could quite possibly be late season hiccups before the tournament (see UNI's loss to Evansville last year as a prime example), they do nevertheless show that any team can beat any other team. Arch Madness is primed to shape up with some great matchups.

Another interesting takeaway is the distribution of our final conference record:

• 6-12: 19.9%
• 7-11: 43.7%
• 8-10: 29.8%
• 9-9: 6.3%
• 10-8: 0.4%

Our odds of getting out of the play in round have increased from 1.0% to 4.0%. Essentially, we're going to need to win 9 or 10 games and have one of Evansville, Creighton, or Indiana State win LESS than 9 games. Because we'll essentially have split the series between these teams if we win, we'll lose in the tiebreaker because we currently have the worst RPI (assuming that continues of course). Therefore, we'll likely need to leapfrog one of those three. It's a tall order at this point, but it sure could happen.

It's essentially the same probability as Southern Illinois going into Wichita State and beating them at their house (Ken Pomeroy had it at a 3% chance).... which is exactly what happened tonight.

Stranger things have happened.