Southern Utah Thunderbirds (1-2) vs. Drake Bulldogs (1-1)

SIZING UP THE THUNDERBIRDS

Last year's Southern Utah team was 7-22 (3-15 Summit), and they graduated their most efficient scorer (Davis Baker, 16.9 PPG, 49.8% EFG, 102.2 ORtg). But don't let that fool you, as the Thunderbirds added three junior college players and two freshmen.

Southern Utah started off their season with a dismal loss to Cal Baptist (69-79), followed by a win against Cal State Bakersfield (66-58) and then a loss to Utah State (53-66). In the statistics below, I have thrown out the Cal Baptist game since they are not D-1. Without further adieu, let's size up the Thunderbirds:

Likely Starters (* = newcomer):

• *Ray Jones Jr. PG, 6-2 JR. Started at point guard in all games played so far. Seems to be struggling early on with 11 turnovers in the past two games to 6 assists. Shooting 2/15 (13.3%) in the past two games, but is able to get to the line and is 11/12. Junior college transfer.
• Jordan Weirick, SG, 6-4 SO. Started at guard in their past two games. Shooting 8/17 with a 52.9% EFG, averaging 11 points per game in the past two games. Shot 44% from two and 31% from three last year as a freshmen.
• *Ramell Taylor, SF, 6-6 JR. Junior college transfer that has stepped right into the starting lineup and hasn't looked back. In the past two games, Taylor has scored 38 points on 15/28 shooting from the field, 7/8 from the charity stripe. Leads the team in rebounds over the past two games with 14. Seems to be a potential all around player for the Thunderbirds.
• Matt Massey, C, 6-9 JR. Shot 42% from two last year and scored 7.9 PPG. Has not looked to score early on with three shots in 33 minutes. 5 rebounds in the past two games, and averaged 4.3 RPG last year. Adds significant size on the frontline.
• Matt Hodgson, C, 6-11 SO. Shot 58.4% from two point last year en route to 6.3 PPG. Has kept that same pace going with 15 points in the last two games with like shooting. Pulled down five rebounds over the past two games, pulled down 4.8 RPG last year. Additional size and rebounding on the front line. Struggled from the line last year (58.5%) but early (and admittedly small sample size) returns have improved at 7/8.

Key Reserves (* = newcomer):

• *Kyle Davis, F, 6-8 FR. Lots of height to add. Has struggled with his shot in the early going (1/9 on field goals), but is second on the team in rebounds with 12 over the past two games. Saw 43 minutes over the past two games.
• *Tyson Koehler, F, 6-7 SO. Junior college transfer. 8 points and 9 rebounds in 39 minutes over the past two games... like some of the other newcomers, is struggling with his shot.
• Ryan Brimley, G, 6-3 JR. Led the team with 41 three point baskets (shot 35.0%) last year. A three point shooter off the bench.
• Jake Nielson, G, 6-2 SO. Started first game and appeared to be primary ballhandler all of last season (has been replaced by Jones, Jr.). Had 83 assists last season, but more than offset that with 95 turnovers. Appears to play spot duty at this point.

As you can see, there are lots of different pieces here -- especially size. This will not be a cakewalk for the Bulldogs.

KEY ISSUES FOR TOMORROW

• Who takes care of the basketball? As mentioned above, both primary ballhandlers on the Thunderbirds have had their share of turnovers. If the Drake defense reverts to how it performed against Texas Southern (22 forced turnovers), this could be a major driver to helping the Bulldogs win tomorrow night. On the flip side, point guard play has not been very strong for the Bulldogs this season but the Thunderbirds have only forced 24 total turnovers in their last two games. If the Drake defense can harass the ballhandlers on Southern Utah and Wiseler/Alexander can have a strong game, that's a huge advantage for the Bulldogs that we certainly could use.
• Keeping them from taking it to the tin. While there are a few shooters on their squad, the Thunderbirds have tremendous size for a Summit league team and their leading scorer Taylor takes it to the tin. It will be imperative for Drake's defense to keep SU from getting to the basket at will -- something they were abysmal at in Ames. Overall, in the past two games, SU has taken 12 three pointers out of 99 field goal attempts. They're going to take it to the tin... can we stop them from doing it?
• The Rebounding Battle. With their size, the Thunderbirds have been solid on the boards, beating Bakersfield tremendously (OR% 43.9% to Bakersfield's 29.3%) and holding their own against Utah State (OR% 20.0% to Utah State's 23.1%). With two starting posts and tremendous size off the bench, it's not hard to believe. How will Drake counteract? We held our own against Texas Southern but got shredded on the boards by the Cyclones. If we can hang with them on the boards, that will be critical to our success.
• Who can shoot it? Both teams aren't lighting up the scoreboard with their shooting, with the Thunderbirds sporting a 40.4% effective field goal % (EFG) compared to Drake's 34.1%. As you can see from above, a lot of Southern Utah's newbies are struggling with their shot early on, likely as they are making the transition to the new game. We can't let them get on a roll or trouble will ensue. Meanwhile, we have to regroup and get our offense going after that disaster in Ames. Nevertheless, I wouldn't be surprised to see a defensive battle considering both teams haven't been lighting it up so far.
• Hodgson vs. Van Deest. I'm interested to see how Seth matches up against their big man. Seth hasn't had a chance to get on a roll yet, it will be interesting to see how he fares against another true big man in Hodgson.