What happened!?!?!??!?

What is going on? I go away for New Years and come back to find that our early season strength (shooting) has now become our #1 weakness in conference play.

When we shot an EFG% of 41.8% against Bradley, I chalked it up to a bad night from beyond the arc (28.1% for threes that night). Considering that our defense has made significant strides, and that we were beginning to get some rebounds, I felt like we at least had a shot to be competitive against Wichita State. With a spread of Drake (+15) in that contest, I felt fairly certain that the gambling man was practically "losing money" by not betting on Drake.

Boy was I wrong. I almost thought I pulled up the wrong score when I saw that the Drakies lost 61-38. Again, another story where we were in the game (if I recall correctly, the score was 35-31 WSU at one point) but decided to stop scoring for a long, critical stretch (finished being outscored 26-7).

Again, our defense was solid (61 points allowed, an efficiency of 92.4 PPP [Points Per 100 Possessions] which is well below Wichita State's season average). We continued to rebound the ball in an acceptable range (OR% was 26%, we allowed Wichita to get an OR% of 36%, roughly at our season average). But we shot a horrendous 24.6% EFG.

What are we going to do? At this point, I have two thoughts:

(1) Continue to find a way to generate QUALITY three point shots

I'm sure this sounds incredibly stupid on the surface. Given the poor performance of their shooting over the past few games, the last thing one might think to do is to continue to find ways to have the Bulldogs to jack up threes.

But consider the makeup of our roster. We have one average-to-solid post player (The Beast) and one that has two serviceable moves (Urban Legend). We have an undersized point guard that can slash, fight through contact, but is an average finisher at the rim at best (Stanley). And then we have a team that is either jump shooters (Wedel, JY, Simons) or are too young to have the body to fight through contact and finish strong (Hawley, Uhlenhopp).

Translation: We have zero slashers on this squad. Thinking back to the last two games I was at (San Diego State and Bradley), there were two players that stuck out to me: Taylor Brown (BU) and Kawhi Leonard (SDSU). I know these names might not ring a bell, but watching them play, they looked like they belonged on the Southern Illinois teams from the mid 'aughts. These guys were athletic, long, tough, and MEAN.

Who would we throw a back door alley-oop to on this Drake team? Who do we have in the open floor that makes the opponent scared they're going to get posterized/dunked on? The answer is nobody.

Now, don't get me wrong, I don't necessarily think you want 5 of those guys on the floor at the same time. But until we have one or two of them, I don't see how you can make the argument that we should avoid being a jumpshooting team.

Perhaps Karl Madison and/or Rayvonte Rice might change that. Until they're here, I think this is a team that needs to find a way to shoot effectively from beyond the arc and take ~40%-45% of their jump shots from three. Considering our personnel, it's the way you maximize your efficiency on the offensive side of the floor.

(2) Stop using women's basketballs at shooting practice

The harder part is figuring out how you can get these guys to start knocking down shots again.

I don't know if they are shooting with women's basketballs during practice, or if the practice hoops are lowered to 9'6", or if Phelps & Company spend 30-90 minutes berating each player individually into the point that they feel like they are nothing as a person. Whatever it is, they need to (a) get more work in to find out whatever fundamental/mechanical flaws might exist, and (b) build some confidence for some of these guys.

I think it's clear that the trio of JY/Wedel/Simons are struggling. Over the past three losses, they have combined for 23/80 FG (28.8%) and 11/44 3PT (25.0%). If these three are going to continue to take 25-30 shots per game (and 15 or so threes) they HAVE to shoot at a better clip. We're flat out not good enough to win when they shoot this bad.

I'm not close enough to know whether Phelps should consider to keep bringing Simons off the bench or not -- but he needs to be careful that he doesn't wreck Simons and set him back 1-2 years in his development. Don't get me wrong, Hawley has outplayed Ben and deserves the minutes, but I think Simons clearly has the higher potential on the offensive end (look at what he did against a Big12 team in Iowa State). In my opinion, we're better off in the second half of this season if Phelps can get Simons back to .470/.390 FG%/3P% rates.

The same goes for Wedel and JY. I don't think you sit these guys based on their experience, but they have to get back to "effortlessly" making open three pointers in game situations. Until they do, I don't see how we excel on the offensive end like we did in the first half of the season.

PREDICTION

This team is becoming one of the most difficult ones to read in quite some time. Tonight's no easier, as I expect a tough test from Indiana State.

I've always been a fan of Harry Marshall since he was a sophomore. While he was pre-season MVC watch, he still has always seemed like a great below-the-radar player in the conference that does a lot of great things for you. Consider his line last year: 13.6 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.5 RPG, 0.9 SPG.

However, Marshall was suspended for one game a few weeks back for an undisclosed violation of team rules. Since his return, he's averaged 9.3 PPG, 2.7 APG, 4.3 RPG, 1.3 SPG, while shooting 37.9%. He'll be ready.

Jake Kelly is a different story. We've recently learned that due to a recent knee injury, he'll need season ending surgery. It's a tough blow to the Sycamores, as he really started to put together a fine run of play, which included a game winning shot to beat Toledo on the road.

A quick look at the numbers shows that they have been a fairly above average defense this season, only allowing a 45.1% EFG%. They have allowed a bit of a high % of opposing points to come from 2-point baskets (at 52.8%), which I wonder is due to the fact that they play so many guards. That said, I don't think this is something we can really expose, due to my point #1 listed above, and due to the fact that they'll likely go back to a larger lineup with Kelly's minutes now needing to go to someone else.

Obviously, the question remains as to whether Friday was an abberation or was a scary warning sign to what is to come for this offense. While I think 38 points is an anomaly, we're going in the wrong direction. I have to go with Indiana State tonight.

Sycamores 65, Bulldogs 54